Posts in Category: cognitive science
the interdisciplinary study of cognition and behavior
Chapter: How can decision models decide to not decide? Modeling suspension in fast-and-frugal trees (FFTs)
Hansjörg Neth, Jelena Meyer
How can decision models decide to not decide?
Modeling suspension in fast-and-frugal trees (FFTs)
Abstract
The phenomena of indecision and suspension loom large in both philosophy and psychology. Whereas psychology discusses related phenomena in practical tasks and mostly pathological terms, philosophy strives for conceptual clarification and emphasizes the ubiquity and variety of suspension.
In this chapter, we use fast-and-frugal trees (FFTs) as a drosophila model for developing a positive account of suspension in decision-making. Being designed for handling binary classification tasks, FFTs seem particularly ill-suited for accommodating a third stance. But by replacing one decision outcome by a do not know category or adding it as a third option, we can adapt and extend the FFT framework to explore the causes and consequences of suspension.
Considering the distributions of decision outcomes and contrasting the performance of alternative models in terms of cost-benefit trade-offs illustrates the power of this methodology. Overall, a model-based approach provides surprising insights into the functions and mechanisms of suspension and serves as a productive tool for thinking.
Keywords
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fast-and-frugal trees (FFTs), judgment and decision making (JDM), heuristics, binary classification, cost-benefit trade-offs, indecision, computer modeling, philosophy, machine learning, suspension
Reference
- Neth, H., & Meyer, J. (2025). How can decision models decide to not decide? Modeling suspension in fast-and-frugal trees (FFTs). In V. Wagner & A. Zinke (Eds.), Suspension in epistemology and beyond (pp. 286–303). New York, NY: Routledge.
doi 10.4324/9781003474302-20
Related: FFTrees: An R toolbox to create, visualize, and evaluate FFTs
Resources: 10.4324/9781003474302-20 | Download PDF | Google Scholar
Paper: FFTrees: An R toolbox to create, visualize, and evaluate FFTs
is nevertheless totally incomprehensible to a human expert, can it
be described as knowledge? Under the common-sense definition of this term
as material that might be assimilated and used by human beings, it is not…
An example of an FFT predicting the risk of having heart disease.
Nathaniel Phillips, Hansjörg Neth, Jan Woike, Wolfgang Gaissmaier
FFTrees: A toolbox to create, visualize, and evaluate fast-and-frugal decision trees
Abstract: Fast-and-frugal trees (FFTs) are simple algorithms that facilitate efficient and accurate decisions based on limited information. But despite their successful use in many applied domains, there is no widely available toolbox that allows anyone to easily create, visualize, and evaluate FFTs. We fill this gap by introducing the R package FFTrees.
Paper: Visual working memory resources as item activation
Donald D. Hoffmann (1998), p. XII
and those involved in symbol manipulation and the organization of complex behaviors.
Ballard et al. (1997), p. 723
Bella Z. Veksler, Rachel Boyd, Christopher W. Myers, Glenn Gunzelmann, Hansjörg Neth, Wayne D. Gray
Visual working memory resources are best characterized as dynamic, quantifiable mnemonic traces
An example stimulus used in the paradigm of repeated serial search.
Abstract: Visual working memory (VWM) is a construct hypothesized to store a small amount of accurate perceptual information that can be brought to bear on a task. Much research concerns the construct’s capacity and the precision of the information stored. Two prominent theories of VWM representation have emerged: slot-based and continuous-resource mechanisms. Prior modeling work suggests that a continuous resource that varies over trials with variable capacity and a potential to make localization errors best accounts for the empirical data. Questions remain regarding the variability in VWM capacity and precision. Using a novel eye-tracking paradigm, we demonstrate that VWM facilitates search and exhibits effects of fixation frequency and recency, particularly for prior targets. Whereas slot-based memory models cannot account for the human data, a novel continuous-resource model does capture the behavioral and eye tracking data, and identifies the relevant resource as item activation.
Paper: Rational task analysis (RTA)
a theory of thinking and problem solving cannot predict behavior
unless it encompasses both an analysis of the structure of task environments
and an analysis of the limits of rational adaptation to task requirements.
(Newell & Simon, 1972, p. 55)
Hansjörg Neth, Chris R. Sims, Wayne D. Gray
Rational task analysis: A methodology to benchmark bounded rationality
Abstract: How can we study bounded rationality? We answer this question by proposing rational task analysis (RTA)—a systematic approach that prevents experimental researchers from drawing premature conclusions regarding the (ir-)rationality of agents. RTA is a methodology and perspective that is anchored in the notion of bounded rationality and aids in the unbiased interpretation of results and the design of more conclusive experimental paradigms.