Posts By hneth

riskyr: A toolbox for rendering risk literacy more transparent

Solving a problem simply means representing it
so as to make the solution transparent.

Simon, H.A. (1996). The Sciences of the Artificial



Hansjörg Neth, Felix Gaisbauer, Nico Gradwohl, Wolfgang Gaissmaier

riskyr: A toolbox for rendering risk literacy more transparent

Example of a riskyr prism plot.

Abstract:  Risk-related information — like the prevalence of conditions and the sensitivity and specificity of diagnostic tests or treatment decisions — can be expressed in terms of probabilities or frequencies. By providing a toolbox of methods and metrics, riskyr computes, translates, and displays risk-related information in a variety of ways. Offering multiple complementary perspectives on the interplay between key parameters renders teaching and training of risk literacy more transparent.

Paper: FFTrees: An R toolbox to create, visualize, and evaluate FFTs

If a decision tree that measures up very well on the performance criterion
is nevertheless totally incomprehensible to a human expert, can it
be described as knowledge? Under the common-sense definition of this term
as material that might be assimilated and used by human beings, it is not…

J. Ross Quinlan (1987), p. 498





Nathaniel Phillips, Hansjörg Neth, Jan Woike, Wolfgang Gaissmaier

FFTrees: A toolbox to create, visualize, and evaluate fast-and-frugal decision trees

An example of an FFT (created by FFTrees) predicting heard disease.

An example of an FFT predicting the risk of having heart disease.

Abstract:  Fast-and-frugal trees (FFTs) are simple algorithms that facilitate efficient and accurate decisions based on limited information. But despite their successful use in many applied domains, there is no widely available toolbox that allows anyone to easily create, visualize, and evaluate FFTs. We fill this gap by introducing the R package FFTrees.

Artikel: Warum erfolgreiche Prognosen einfach und unsicher sind

The trouble with free elections is that you never know how they are going to to turn out.
(Vyacheslav Molotov, 1954, see Wikiquote)



Hansjörg Neth, Wolfgang Gaissmaier

Warum erfolgreiche Prognosen einfach und unsicher sind

Von der Wahl des richtigen Werkzeugs für Wähler und die Wahlforschung

Aus der Einleitung:  Für Entscheidungswissenschaftler sind Wahlen – ungeachtet aller Warnungen – ein großartiges und größenwahnsinniges Experiment. Während wir sonst das Entscheidungsverhalten von Individuen und Gruppen in kontrollierten Laborsituationen erforschen, werden bei Wahlen die Meinungen von Millionen Menschen über mehrere Monate systematisch manipuliert und dann ein bundesweites Aggregat ihrer Mehrfachauswahlentscheidungen gebildet, das die Zusammensetzung von Parlament und Regierung und damit die Politik der nächsten Jahre determiniert. Auch wenn das Experiment ethisch nicht unbedenklich und seine Aussagekraft in Ermangelung einer Kontrollgruppe erheblich eingeschränkt ist, finden sich auf der gesamtgesellschaftlichen Ebene viele Elemente wieder, deren Mechanismen wir im mikroskopischen Maßstab aus unseren Studien kennen.

Paper: Visual working memory resources as item activation

To understand visual intelligence is to understand, in large part, who we are.
Donald D. Hoffmann (1998), p. XII


The body’s movements at this time scale provide an essential link between processes underlying elemental perceptual events
and those involved in symbol manipulation and the organization of complex behaviors.
Ballard et al. (1997), p. 723


Bella Z. Veksler, Rachel Boyd, Christopher W. Myers, Glenn Gunzelmann, Hansjörg Neth, Wayne D. Gray

Visual working memory resources are best characterized as dynamic, quantifiable mnemonic traces

An example stimulus used in the paradigm of repeated serial search.

An example stimulus used in the paradigm of repeated serial search.

Abstract:  Visual working memory (VWM) is a construct hypothesized to store a small amount of accurate perceptual information that can be brought to bear on a task.  Much research concerns the construct’s capacity and the precision of the information stored.  Two prominent theories of VWM representation have emerged: slot-based and continuous-resource mechanisms.  Prior modeling work suggests that a continuous resource that varies over trials with variable capacity and a potential to make localization errors best accounts for the empirical data.  Questions remain regarding the variability in VWM capacity and precision.  Using a novel eye-tracking paradigm, we demonstrate that VWM facilitates search and exhibits effects of fixation frequency and recency, particularly for prior targets.  Whereas slot-based memory models cannot account for the human data, a novel continuous-resource model does capture the behavioral and eye tracking data, and identifies the relevant resource as item activation.